For months, it looked like the Grammy race for best new artist was likely to come down to Alex Warren and sombr. But a couple of things happened in the past few weeks to make the race more competitive – Olivia Dean exploded with a top 10 single on the Billboard Hot 100 (“Man I Need”) and a top 10 album on the Billboard 200 (The Art of Loving). And the Recording Academy ruled Leon Thomas eligible, even though he won a Grammy three years ago for co-writing SZA’s “Snooze.” Now, we have a real race.
With the nominations set to be announced next Friday (Nov. 7), all four of these artists certain to be nominated for best new artist, along with Lola Young. After that, it gets harder to choose, but the field will be rounded out with three other nominees, culled from a list of 337 eligible names.
Final-round voting begins Dec. 12 and extends to Jan. 5. So Dean has about six weeks for her profile to continue building before the first votes are cast.
If Dean (or Young) winds up winning, this will be the ninth year in a row that a solo woman has been named best new artist. The streak started in 2018 with Alessia Cara and has continued with Dua Lipa, Billie Eilish, Megan Thee Stallion, Olivia Rodrigo, Samara Joy, Victoria Monét and Chappell Roan.
If Warren, somber or Thomas takes the prize, they’d be the first male artist to win since Chance the Rapper in 2017.
The Marías, which span multiple genres and languages, also have a good chance of being nominated. If they were to win, they’d be the first group (defined as an act with three or more members) to take the prize since fun. in 2013. Three other groups are seen as having a reasonably good shot at a nod: Sleep Token, KATSEYE and The Red Clay Strays.
Some of the top contenders have already won new artist prizes at other shows. Warren won best new artist at the MTV Video Music Awards on Sept. 7. Thomas won best new artist at the BET Awards on June 9. Zach Top, Ella Langley and The Red Clay Strays won the new male, female, and duo/group prizes at the Academy of Country Music Awards on May 8. Myles Smith won the rising star award at the Brit Awards on March 1.
Even some acts that won new artist awards in 2024 are eligible. Megan Moroney won new artist of the year at the 2024 Country Music Association Awards and new female artist of the year at the 2024 Academy of Country Music Awards. The Red Clay Strays won emerging artist of the year at the 2024 Americana Music Honors & Awards.
(The Grammys in recent years have erred on the side of being inclusive in this category. In previous eras, they almost seemed to be looking for nitpicky reasons to kick artists out – just ask the people around Whitney Houston and Richard Marx who are probably still smarting over their exclusions.)
BigXthaPlug and Bailey Zimmerman, who collaborated on the top five Hot 100 hit “All the Way,” are competing against each other here. Sleep Token and Ken Carson, who both landed No. 1 albums on the Billboard 200, are eligible. So is Role Model, who made a vivid impression late in the eligibility year with his irresistible breakthrough hit “Sally, When the Wine Runs Out.”
Other strong contenders, not already mentioned, include Ravyn Lenae, Mariah the Scientist, Addison Rae, Jessie Murph, Gigi Perez, Riley Green, October London, Sam Fender, Reneé Rapp, PinkPantheress, Tucker Wetmore, ATEEZ, Central Cee, Lil Tecca, Parker McCollum and Keke Palmer.
The eligibility period for the 68th Grammy Awards is Aug. 31, 2024, through Aug. 30, 2025. While the Grammys set a minimum number of releases an artist must have to qualify in this category (five singles/tracks or one album), there is no maximum. Instead, the Grammys’ rules and guidelines booklet says nominations for the honor hinge on when “the artist had attained a breakthrough or prominence” — and it delegates that determination to a screening committee.
Artists are allowed to appear on the entry list for best new artist three times, after which they are ruled ineligible for future consideration.
Here are the eight leading nominees for best new artist. The artists are shown in alphabetical order, which is how they’ll be listed on the Grammy nominees list.
Olivia Dean
Trending on Billboard
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}Her stats: Her sophomore album, The Art of Loving, has climbed as high as No. 6 on the Billboard 200. Her breakout hit, “Man I Need,” has reached No. 8 on the Hot 100. The single was eligible for record of the year but wasn’t entered. (Oops.) The album was released after the eligibility cut-off, but it will be eligible for album of the year at the 2027 ceremony.
If she wins: She’ll be the first artist from England to win since Dua Lipa in 2019. She’d also become the second artist named Olivia to win, following Olivia Rodrigo.
Ravyn Lenae
Image Credit: Remy Bourdeau Trending on Billboard
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}Her stats: Her second studio album Bird’s Eye reached No. 139 on the Billboard 200. Her breakout single, “Love Me Not,” reached No. 5 on the Hot 100. “Love Me Not” was released in May 2024, but it’s eligible for record of the year this year. Go figure.
If she wins: Lenae, rather than Dean, will keep the winning streak alive for women artists in this category.
The Marías
Image Credit: Jaxon Whittington Trending on Billboard
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}Their stats: Their second studio album, Submarine, debuted and peaked at No. 17 on the Billboard 200. Their breakout hit, “No One Noticed,” reached No. 22 on the Hot 100. Both album and single were released in the previous eligibility year, so they’re not eligible this year. (There’s more flexibility in this category for acts that needed a little more time to break through.)
If they win: They would be the first group to win since fun. in 2013; the first female-fronted group to win since Evanescence (fronted by Amy Lee) in 2004. The Marías consists of lead vocalist María Zardoya, drummer/producer Josh Conway, guitarist Jesse Perlman, and keyboardist Edward James.
The Marías were nominated for album of the year three years ago as featured artists on Bad Bunny’s Un Verano Sin Ti. They owe their eligibility in this category to a rule change this year that allows artists with previous album of the year nominations to compete for best new artist if they appeared on 20 percent or less of the album’s playing time.
sombr
Image Credit: Bryce Glenn Trending on Billboard
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}His stats: His debut album, I Barely Know Her, has climbed as high as No. 10 on the Billboard 200. He has had a pair of top 20 hits on the Hot 100, “Back to Friends” and “Undressed.” The hits were concurrent, so sombr neatly sidestepped the one-hit-wonder worry that has bedeviled newcomers since the dawn of record-making. sombr’s impressive songwriting earned a shout-out from Taylor Swift, who was nominated for best new artist 18 years ago. (She lost to Amy Winehouse.) Sombr’s camp entered “Back to Friends” and not “Undressed” for record and song of the year. Sombr may be new to the game, but he knows enough not to risk splitting your votes at awards shows.
If he wins: At 20, he would be the youngest winner since Olivia Rodrigo, who was just 18 when she won in 2023. He’d be the youngest male artist ever to win. (Just by being nominated, he would be the youngest male nominee since Khalid, who was 19 when he was nominated at the 2018 ceremony.)
Leon Thomas
Image Credit: Austin Hargrave Trending on Billboard
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}His stats: His second studio album, Mutt, reached No. 35 on the Billboard 200. The title track, an old-school soul ballad in all its 1970s-evoking glory, has climbed as high as No. 10 on the Hot 100. “Mutt” was released in the previous eligibility year, so it isn’t eligible for record of the year, but an alternate take, “Mutt (Live From NPR’s Tiny Desk),” is entered.
At 32, Thomas is the oldest of this year’s top contenders for best new artist, though several other artists with a reasonably good chance of a nod have passed The Big 3-0. They include Sam Fender, 31; Riley Green, 37; and October London, 39.
If he wins: He’ll be the first person who has already won a Grammy to win best new artist since Lauryn Hill in 1999. As noted above, Thomas won best R&B song three years ago for co-writing SZA’s “Snooze.” He was allowed to compete here this year because this was his breakthrough as an artist. Hill was allowed to compete for best new artist even though she had won two Grammys two years earlier as a member of Fugees. (Current rules wouldn’t allow that.)
Zach Top
Image Credit: Citizen Kane Wayne Trending on Billboard
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}His stats: His second studio album, Ain’t in It for My Health, debuted and peaked at No. 11 on the Billboard 200, 20 notches higher than the peak position of his debut album, Cold Beer and Country Music. “I Never Lie,” from the first album, reached No. 24 on the Hot 100 (and is entered for record of the year).
If he wins: He’ll be the first country artist to win since Zac Brown Band in 2010; the first male solo country artist ever to win.
Alex Warren
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}His stats: His debut album, You’ll Be Alright, Kid, has reached No. 5 on the Billboard 200. “Ordinary” logged 10 weeks at No. 1 on the Hot 100. A follow-up, “Eternity,” reached No. 16.
If he wins: He’d be the second best new artist winner whose breakout year included a 10-week No. 1 smash. Debby Boone was the first with her 1977 megahit “You Light Up My Life.” (Interestingly, both are quasi-religious power ballads.) “Ordinary” was Billboard’s Song of the Summer, even though most agreed it wasn’t very summery. Warren is vying to become the fourth Song of the Summer champ to go on to win the Grammy for best new artist, following Carpenters, Mariah Carey and Christina Aguilera. (Their song of the summer winners, as you surely know, were “(They Long to Be) Close to You,” “Vision of Love” and “Genie in a Bottle,” respectively.)
Lola Young
Image Credit: Conor Cunningham Trending on Billboard
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}Her stats: Her third album, I’m Only F**king Myself, debuted and peaked at No. 68 on the Billboard 200. Her breakout hit, “Messy,” reached No. 14 on the Hot 100. Tyler, The Creator’s “Like Him,” on which she was featured, reached No. 29. “Messy” was released in the previous eligibility year, but it’s entered for record of the year nonetheless.
If she wins: She, rather than Dean, will become the first artist from England to win since Dua Lipa in 2019.
